Ebook Free Decision Analysis for the Professional, by John Celona, Peter McNamee
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Decision Analysis for the Professional, by John Celona, Peter McNamee
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NEW FOURTH EDITION Decision Analysis has, for decades, been the most powerful method available for making decisions under conditions of uncertainty, e.g., new business strategies and new product launches. In this timely book, business consultants McNamee and Celona set forth the practical application of decision analysis for business decision-makers and those who support them. The book clearly illustrates the need for coupling decision process with analysis to create quality decisions. Includes cases and discussion questions. 339 pages.
- Sales Rank: #536046 in Books
- Published on: 2001-10-01
- Ingredients: Example Ingredients
- Original language: English
- Number of items: 1
- Binding: Paperback
- 339 pages
From the Publisher
The Fourth Edition was updated and published in 2005. The first edition of this book was published in 1988. Since then it has been used by management and professionals in large and small companies throughout the world to educate management and staff members in Decision Analysis, a major application of Decision Science. The authors, experienced management consultants, have worked for decades with the founders of Decision Analysis at Stanford University, Strategic Decisions Group and clients throughout the world in the application of Decision Analysis to a broad range of strategic problems. This book captures both the theory of Decision Analysis as well as its application in the real world in a highly readable, practical manner.
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About the Author
Peter McNamee obtained a Ph.D. in theoretical physics from Stanford University. After 10 years of university teaching and physics research, he decided to leave the realm of academia for the practical world of decision analysis. First with SRI International (formerly Stanford Research Institute) and then with Strategic Decisions Group, Peter has worked for companies in many areas, including bidding, energy, consumer goods, oil, telecommunications, chemicals, and insurance. Peter has lectured on decision analysis in the United States and abroad. He feels computer software is essential to making decision analysis more practical. For this reason, he has played a principal role in developing several generations of Supertree(r) software. Peter is presently one of the founders of SmartOrg Inc., a company dedicated to developing systems to help organizations develop superior management skills. John Celona has pursued his long-time interest in making difficult decisions and implementing the choice through a number of disciplines and vocations; first with a degree in industrial engineering and engineering management, then as a management consultant for Strategic Decisions Group, then as a lawyer specializing in litigation risk analysis, then as an independent consultant. Then, things got really interesting as he tried to sit on the other side of the table by being interim CEO of two successive startup companies. John is presently an independent consultant.
Most helpful customer reviews
16 of 17 people found the following review helpful.
Excellent refresher and reference for working professionals
By Mike Tarrani
This book is an excellent intermediate-level text on decision analysis that deals with both uncertainty and risk. It uses realistic examples that working professionals will appreciate and to which they can relate.
It's written as a tutorial that uses two tools, Sensitivity, which is used with the chapters dealing with decisions under uncertainty, and Supertree for developing decision trees related to risk analysis. Instructions on obtaining the student versions of these programs are included in the book. Note that the student version of Supertree accommodates trees with up to 250 endpoints, and the student version of Sensitivity performs sensitivity for up to 12 variables.
My most used text on decision analysis is Making Hard Decisions by Robert T. Clemen. Where that book is more comprehensive, it's also less suitable for the working professional who needs a refresher and a desk reference. Therein lies the main value of this book - it's more aligned to real world problems that you'll find in the workplace and is written to be both a tutorial and a reference.
2 of 2 people found the following review helpful.
A practical guide to making better decisions
By Graham Jeffery
This book started life as a manual for the SuperTree decision analysis software package. The 3rd edition has been rewritten to be software-neutral and now incorporates the dialogue decision process (DDP) and the concepts of decision quality.
Between this and Making Hard Decisions by Robert Clemen, DAftP is the more practical, and hence better, book for the ordinary professional working with a decision analyst, or as a first text for a trainee decision analyst wanting to learn about decision diagrams and decision trees, and how these tools should be used in real-world consulting engagements. Mathematical theory is nicely relegated to the "Advanced Topics" section and well written for those with a non-advanced mathematical education.
I would have liked at least some mention of Monte Carlo simulation as an alternative to decision trees, but then it is only in the last year or so (DAftP was last updated in 2001) that Monte Carlo simulation has become a realistic alternative to simple decision tree analysis, largely abetted by the development by Sam Savage of the DIST standard for encoding probability distributions.
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